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Euro Lira Forecast

Euro Lira Forecast

Trading for Beginner - Euro Lira

First Published: 27 October, 2022
Last Updated: 23 November, 2022
Fact-checked by Adrian Müller

The Euro Lira cross refers to the exchange rate between the European Euro and the Turkish Lira. The current value of the Euro Lira cross is 1 euro equals approximately 18.02 Liras. The Euro has been gaining strength against the Lira over the past year, reaching its record-highest value in October 2022.

Table of Content

Brief Overview

The Euro is expected to continue its upward trend against the Lira in the coming year. This is based on several factors, including strengthening the Eurozone economy and continued political stability in Turkey. The European Central Bank is also expected to maintain its accommodative monetary policy stance, which should support the Euro.

However, there are some risks to this forecast. These include potential new geopolitical tensions in the region and possible economic and financial stability issues in Turkey. These risks could cause the Euro Lira cross to move lower if they materialize. Nonetheless, the overall outlook for the Euro Lira cross remains positive, and it is expected to continue its upward trend in the coming year.

Factors affecting Euro TL forecast

The EUR/TRY currency pair is one of the most volatile in the world right now. The Euro has been struggling ever since the Russian invasion of Ukraine, but it has gained momentum after the ECB decided to do away with negative rates and go on a hawkish spree to raise the interest rates to counter record inflation in the Eurozone. This has loaded the Euro with investor expectations, and this momentum is carrying the Euro despite the uncertainty and risk created due to the ongoing war.

Another factor impacting the Euro tl forecast is the strengthening US dollar. The USD has generated a lot of momentum lately due to the rising fears of a recession and the FED’s hawkish stance. This has pushed investors into a risk off mindset, weakening traditionally volatile pairs like the Euro and Turkish Lira.

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Factors affecting Turkish Lira forecast (forecast Turkish Lira)

On the other hand, the Turkish Lira has been through some tough times recently, and it looks like things are only going to get worse. Between these two currencies, it is the Euro which is the stronger currency, with the Turkish Lira showing no signs of bouncing back.

The Turkish economy is facing a number of problems, including almost 3 decades high inflation, low growth, and growing net negative reserves. These factors are likely to weigh on the Lira in the months ahead.

The Russian invasion of Ukraine has had a major impact on food and energy prices for both Europe and Turkey. As a major wheat exporter and heavy importer of oil and gas, Turkey is feeling the effects of these rising prices. Inflation in Turkey has increased by 73.5% year-over-year as a result.

The Turkish government is trying to combat demand for foreign currencies like the Euro and US Dollar by compensating domestic savers for losses on the Lira. However, this heavy interventionist approach has led to a decrease in the net reserves of the Central Bank of the Republic of Turkey (CBRT), which have fallen to almost negative $55 billion after including the foreign exchange swap deals with the local commercial banks.

The current outlook for the currency crisis in Turkey is concerning, as inflation levels are at record highs and real yields are at record lows. The current account is negative, and bond risk premiums and external debt burdens are increasing. These factors indicate that the crisis is likely to worsen in the long term, projecting a long-term bearish outlook for the Turkish Lira forecast (forecast Turkish Lira).

The current policy to reduce the interest rates is also one of the major factors resulting in the weakness of the Lira. The ECB is now fully hawkish, coming out of its decade-long slumber. This naturally makes Euro the more attractive of the two currencies for investors.

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Daily Forecast Euro Turkish Lira

The daily Euro Lira forecast and Lira Euro forecast for the next month is as follows.

The forecast Euro Turkish Lira range for the next 24-48 hours is expected to be 17.9014 – 18.1311

For the remainder of the month of October, the Turkish Lira forecast is expected to remain within the 17.5840 – 18.1630 range (forecast Turkish Lira).

For the first half of the month of November, the Turkish Lira forecast is expected to remain within the 17.4327 – 17.9656 range (forecast Turkish Lira).

DateTargetPes.Opt.Vol %
Oct 28⇩ 17.836317.755817.88530.73%
Oct 29⇩ 17.822517.722517.89510.97%
Oct 30⇩ 17.802917.732417.89500.92%
Oct 31⇧ 17.936117.888717.98540.54%
Nov 01⇩ 17.904517.833617.96950.76%
Nov 02⇩ 17.768617.694317.88781.09%
Nov 03⇩ 17.702217.589217.83071.37%
Nov 04⇩ 17.597017.448017.74411.70%
Nov 05⇩ 17.569917.432717.66461.33%
Nov 06⇧ 17.705217.570817.75971.08%
Nov 07⇩ 17.687717.580717.78301.15%
Nov 08⇩ 17.681817.565117.77711.21%
Nov 09⇧ 17.718817.605717.82601.25%
Nov 10⇩ 17.621317.534117.77641.38%
Nov 11⇧ 17.714417.583817.85081.52%
Nov 12⇩ 17.687117.646217.81160.94%
Source: PandaForecast

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Monthly Forecast Euro Turkish Lira

The monthly Euro Lira forecast (Lira Euro Forecast) for the next two months is as follows

MonthTargetPessimisticOptimistic.Vol%
Nov⇧ 18.890718.456219.17413.74%
Dec⇩ 18.579018.003118.79274.20%
Source: PandaForecast

Technical Euro Lira Forecast (Lira Euro Forecast)

Based on various technical indicators, the Euro Lira forecast (Lira Euro Forecast) market trend is as follows

PeriodTrend
Next 24-48 hoursSell
Next weekBuy
Next monthBuy

Let us now have a detailed look into these technical indicators.

Oscillator

An oscillator technical indicator is a technical analysis tool used to measure the current price level in relation to previous prices. It helps traders identify overbought and oversold market conditions and potential trend reversals. It is a leading technical indicator, meaning that it can signal incoming price movements.

Trading for Beginner - Euro Lira - Oscillator

Source: TradingView

Based on the weekly and monthly oscillator analysis for the EURTRY cross, it can be seen that the indicator is neutral, meaning that the cross is neither overbought nor oversold. This negates any possibility of a price correction movement, which means that in the short term, the EURTRY cross is likely to experience low levels of volatility.

1 month technical analysis

NameValueActions
Relative Strength Index (14)83.08987Sell
Stochastic %K (14,3,3)76.85257Neutral
Commodity Channel Index (20)88.90099Neutral
Average Directional Index (14)82.30513Neutral
Awesome Oscillator6.45499Neutral
Momentum (10)2.99330Buy
MACD level (12, 26)2.57982Buy
Stochastic RSI Fast (3,3,14,14)74.98882Neutral
Williams Percentage Range (14)-24.18424Neutral
Bull Bear Power4.28264Neutral
Ultimate Oscillator (7, 14,28)57.99832Neutral

Moving Average for the Euro Lira forecast (Lira Euro forecast)

Investors and traders use a moving average technical indicator to analyze price trends. This indicator helps minimize the effect of price fluctuations and helps identify the trend for any currency pair or security.

This indicator plots the average price over a period, typically 10 to 200 days. The average is taken by adding up the closing prices for a given number of periods and dividing by that same number of periods. As new closing prices become available, the oldest closing price is dropped, and the newest one is added in its place, thus creating a constantly-updated moving average.

Moving averages can be used in various ways, including as a trend indicator or as support and resistance levels. When the security’s price is above its moving average, it may indicate an uptrend, while if the price is below its moving average, it may indicate a downtrend. Additionally, when the security’s price approaches or crosses its moving average, it may serve as support or resistance to further movements in that direction.

It should be noted that moving averages do have limitations – they only take into account past performance and do not take into account future events that could potentially impact the security’s price. As such, they are lagging indicators that must be combined with other indicators for decision making.

Trading for Beginner - Euro Lira - Moving averages
Source: TradingView

Source: TradingView

Based on the weekly and monthly moving averages for the EURTRY cross, it can be seen that the indicator is showing a market trend to strongly buy the Euro against the Turkish Lira. The moving average has converged close to the reference line, which indicates that, for the time being, there is little volatility in this cross.

If we connect this technical analysis with the factors discussed earlier, we can see that the momentum of the Euro is driving the price movements for the time being. This is likely to continue unless any development changes the current conditions.

1 month technical analysis

NameValueActions
Exponential Moving Average (10)16.79412Buy
Simple moving average (10)17.01906Buy
Exponential moving average (20)14.74323Buy
Simple moving average (20)14.10248Buy
Exponential moving average (30)13.20326Buy
Simple moving average (30)12.30592Buy
Exponential moving average (50)11.09217Buy
Simple moving average (50)9.98253Buy
Exponential moving average (100)8.23561Buy
Simple moving average (100)6.85280Buy
Exponential moving average (200)5.14127Buy
Simple moving average (200)4.51276Buy
Ichimoku Base Line (9, 26, 52, 26)14.54030Neutral
Volume Weighted Moving Average (20)
Hull Moving Average (9)18.71457Sell

Short term Turkish Lira forecast

The short term Euro TL forecast indicates that there will be a lot of volatility in favor of the Lira, which is a typical mark of risk leveraged currencies. In this case, volatility is going to be good for day traders who can time their traders accurately.

However, due to the momentum created by the interest rate hikes, the forecast Euro Turkish Lira is expected to remain bullish for the remainder of October as well as in November. Still, December is likely to see a bearish Euro TL forecast due to the inevitable energy crisis and the rising cost of living. December will take some pressure off the Turkish Lira, but it is so fundamentally weak that this will only be a temporary relief.

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Long term Turkish Lira forecast (forecast Turkish Lira)

The Forecast Euro Turkish Lira range for the 52 week period is expected to be 10.6436 – 20.7245

This Euro TL forecast indicates that the EURTRY cross is likely to remain bullish for November, but a bearish trend is set for December, as winters in Europe lead to the expected energy crisis.

2023 is not expected to be better, either. With the threat of a global recession, the already weak economy of Turkey will put much more pressure on the Lira. The fundamentals of the Turkish economy are not very stable; in the presence of such factors, the Lira is expected to remain bearish in the long term.

Investors are, therefore, likely to go along with the Euro for this cross.

Disclaimer: The information provided in this article is for informational purposes only. Before making any investment, please understand the risks involved. Always carry out your own due diligence and invest responsibly.

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